Globalization, FDI and Trade in Case Study of Pakistan: An Empirical Analysis
Sabeeha Naseer,
Muhammad Shabir Jan
Issue:
Volume 10, Issue 3, September 2021
Pages:
38-42
Received:
1 May 2021
Accepted:
8 July 2021
Published:
15 July 2021
Abstract: Globalization is a complex phenomenon that has many national or international implications, as well as various impacts on the national economy and the world economy in general. The process of national economic globalization is clearly influenced by economic performance, foreign trade, financial development and its ability to attract foreign investment. Foreign capital has played a key role in the development of such a state in Pakistan. The current study used the time series data and the data range form 1981-2017. The variables are Globalization, foreign direct investment and trade. study applied ADF unit root test for stationary of these variables. First the unit root test applies at the level the variables are not stationary then apply at first difference so study applied ADF unit root test for stationary. The result shows that all variables are stationary at first difference. However, all variables are not stationary at level. the application of Johansen co-integration test appropriate applied for the purpose of association between variables. Finally, the study applied Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) for the purpose of long run analysis of the study. Johansen co-integration test concluded that globalization have positive impact on FDI and Trade. (VECM) model shows that the Globalization, FDI and Trade have long run relationship.
Abstract: Globalization is a complex phenomenon that has many national or international implications, as well as various impacts on the national economy and the world economy in general. The process of national economic globalization is clearly influenced by economic performance, foreign trade, financial development and its ability to attract foreign investm...
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A Bayesian Survival Model Approach for Business Distress Prediction
Arvind Shrivastava,
Kuldeep Kumar,
Nitin Kumar
Issue:
Volume 10, Issue 3, September 2021
Pages:
43-51
Received:
15 June 2021
Accepted:
28 June 2021
Published:
10 November 2021
Abstract: The early warning signals of corporate distress and failure have been a major area of concern for shareholders, policy makers and academicians alike. Numerous approaches have been applied to examine firm insolvency ranging from the famous Altman’s Z-score, traditional econometrics, financial ratio analysis to the more contemporary tools of Artificial Intelligence and Machine Learning. The Cox proportional survival hazard model is a commonly applied technique not only in the field of medical sciences for estimating occurrences of a specific event but also in failure prediction of private firms. The study investigates distress prediction of firms in context of emerging nation like India where otherwise the application of Bayesian survival models is limited. A rich panel of firms spanning over ten years and representing varied sectors like manufacturing, services, mining and construction is compiled for the purpose. The study contributes by developing hazard (survival) modelling using Bayesian perspective. The advantage of Bayesian method lies in dealing effectively with censored and small samples over usual frequentist methods. Both standard Cox survival model for censored failure time and Bayesian estimation have been performed to assess and compare their performance. It is found that prediction accuracy of Bayesian Cox model is significantly higher than of the classical Cox model. The study contributes by providing useful insights in detecting early signs of distress in Indian corporate sector that is otherwise scant in literature.
Abstract: The early warning signals of corporate distress and failure have been a major area of concern for shareholders, policy makers and academicians alike. Numerous approaches have been applied to examine firm insolvency ranging from the famous Altman’s Z-score, traditional econometrics, financial ratio analysis to the more contemporary tools of Artifici...
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